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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/28 10:47

   Grain Futures Seeing Red Midday Tuesday

   Corn is 5 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 9 to 10 cents lower and wheat is 7 
to 9 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 450 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.35 higher. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are 
weaker with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold down $15.00.


   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents lower with trade backing away from the recent 
highs and support from world commodity action fading a bit at midday Tuesday 
while we wait for yield trends to solidify further. Mexico secured 150,000 
metric tons on the daily wire. Ethanol margins will tighten a bit more with 
natural gas prices surging holding highs to crimp. South America will continue 
with early full-season corn planting with little weather concerns there so far. 
Corn basis will continue to fade to harvest continuing to push forward at a 
good clip. Weekly crop progress showing steady conditions at 59% good to 
excellent and 15% poor to very poor, with 97% dented versus 94% on average, 74% 
mature versus 64% on average and 18% harvested versus 15% on average. On the 
December contract, we have support at the 20-day at $5.23 with the upper 
Bollinger Band at $5.42 next resistance, which we are just below.


   Soybeans are 9 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade struggling to extend 
gains. Harvest progress and limited fresh bullish news is keeping a lid on 
action despite the spillover support. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is 
0.40 cent to 0.50 cent lower. Harvest should continue to expand with weather 
continuing to push maturity along with a broad yield trend to emerge this week 
with good early results. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. 
South American planting will get more attention into the end of the month as 
action scales up with a mixed short-term forecast. Weekly crop progress showed 
steady conditions at 58% good to excellent and 15% poor to very poor, with 75% 
dropping leaves versus 72% last year and 16% harvested versus 13% on average. 
On the November soybean chart, support at the 20-day at $12.82, which we are 
just below at midday, with further support at the recent low at $12.57 1/2, and 
the upper Bollinger Band above the market at $13.03.


   Wheat trade is 7 to 9 cents lower with trade chopping along the upper end of 
the range with spillover from outside markets. The dollar is back at the highs 
as well but effects have been muted so far. KC is 1 cent below Chicago in 
firmer action, with Minneapolis at a 201-cent premium in firmer action as well. 
Weather in the Plains looks wetter short term as planting expands with little 
fresh news on Southern Hemisphere weather so far. Weekly crop progress showing 
34% planted versus 32% on average and 9% emerged versus 8% on average. KC 
December on the chart has support at the 20-day at $7.07, with the upper 
Bollinger Band at $7.33 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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